Trump Politics 2024.
Back in 2014, I wrote an earnest article detailing how candidate Hillary Clinton in her late-sixties seemed too old to capture the imagination of the American electorate. Attached to a statistical analysis, I posited that seasoned and grizzled statesmen were incredibly susceptible to fresh-faced new kids in town. Although I possessed warm feelings for Jeb Bush as the most likely Clinton opponent, an experienced candidate from the same cohort in his early-mid-sixties, not to mention a scion from the other most famous powerhouse political family of the past quarter century, I believed a “new generation” candidate would prove much more appealing.
Of course, the age issue seems silly now. As, even eight years later, Hillary at 75 years old remains several years younger than our two leading presidential candidates of the moment: 81 year-old Joe Biden and 78 year-old Donald Trump.
But, more importantly, back in 2016, for all the reasons I enumerated then—and many more, Hillary proved an awful candidate. In retrospect, it is easy to see how any Republican might have coasted to a comfortable victory against her. Ironically, looking back, Donald Trump was one of the few candidates who could have lost to her—which he almost did. But he drew the inside straight with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, broke the Blue Wall, and shocked the world.
2020. We still have a hard time imagining gibberish-spewing, shuffling and stumbling, denizen of the basement, President Joe Biden, winning 81 million votes. Twelve million votes more than previous record holder Barack Obama. But it happened, and we remain hard-pressed to explain that outcome against anyone other then Trump.
2024. If Joe Biden, in his deteriorating condition, remains the Democratic standard bearer, any Republican nominee can beat him—including Donald Trump. But, once again, Trump is one of the few potential nominees who could actually lose. All current indications and conventional wisdom at this point seem to signal a very tight race between the two presidents.
An Aside: if the parties were capable of good sense, they would dump Biden and Trump respectively. Will they both survive the long election season? As I have argued before, the scandals and the economy and issues surrounding his mental competency are not major considerations for Democrats intent on re-nominating the incumbent. All those factors can be managed. But a slip in the polls, an undeniable signal that President Biden is on track to lose the general election, a real emergency, will trigger the evacuation process. By what means is unclear and relatively unimportant. There are many options. But, take it to the bank, Democratic leadership, if in real distress, can and will reorient the trajectory of the fall race by replacing a failing Biden with a new and vigorous option at the top of the ticket.
The Trump dilemma is more stubborn. Some public polling indicates that 70 percent of the American public do not want the rematch, but, according to other public opinion polling, on any given day, more than 50 percent of the GOP nominating voters favor Donald Trump again over a slate of younger and uber-qualified challengers. And, as we see even more polling often enough now that has Trump and Biden dead-even in the general, the “Trump is unelectable argument” seems like another lie from the usual suspects.
Why do tens of millions of Americans love the incredibly flawed Trump?
In his own way, Donald J. Trump really is a brilliant communicator, a genius perhaps. A unique talent in the annals of American politics, Trump is both an innovative rhetorician and a persuader of enormous skill. Salena Zito once told us to take him seriously not literally, and, so often, his seemingly nonsensical and ridiculous formulations carry a coded but trenchant analysis that his competitors miss but his listeners hear.
In an underappreciated similarity to Ronald Reagan, a whole generation of American voters knew Trump as a glamorous celebrity for decades. Then they watched him on the TV every week in prime time for ten years. Trump began bid for the presidency with name recognition across all segments of American society that dwarfed most of his competitors and placed him on a par with former presidents, elite sports heroes and superstar performers.
And, despite the dire predictions of every educated pundit, President Donald Trump left the White House with an impressive enumeration of accomplishments for the American people.
But there is also the dark side to Trump. He is smart, but he won’t study. He does not love or understand the Constitution—and he really does not care to learn. He has no moral compass outside his own self-interest and no core beliefs that guide policy. He is too petty and it clouds his judgement. This is the business of American politics, but he takes it personal. He has his savant-like instincts that propel him to unprecedented heights of public frenzy and adulation, but he also makes idiotic political mistakes of which a child would know better. His post-election shenanigans, even if they did not put “our democracy” at immediate risk, proved asinine. Any fool could have seen by January 6th that none of his efforts to “stop the steal” were going to overturn the election. Right or wrong, he was out and Biden was in. And, as I have said before, if he had had the presence of mind to concede with graceful defiance, he would be the double-digit, runaway, unbeatable front-running candidate for 2024.
Bottom Line. You cannot trust this person to do the right thing. You cannot even trust him to pick his most advantageous option. “It was worse than a crime, it was a colossal blunder.”
Again, if either party jettisoned their prohibitive frontrunner for a charismatic new generation fresh face, they would be assured of a 2024 victory.
KEVEN McCARTHY, 2023 and Beyond
I like Kevin McCarthy. Perhaps it is the contrarian in me—or my American propensity to root for the underdog. But I believe him a smart person of good will who loves his country.
The impending shutdown is a mess—and not completely of McCarthy’s making. He faces a slew of unprecedented and perhaps unnavigable obstacles. As I am skeptical of the shutdown for myriad strategical and tactical reasons, I should admit two personal biases. We are set to be in DC on a study trip for my college in November, so an extended suspension of government operations will prove inconvenient. And, even more annoying, my son is an essential government employee who will be forced to work without pay during the impasse.
The Speaker of the House plays a dual role in our political system. He is the partisan leader of the majority party in the House of Representatives. He is also one of four national leaders mentioned in the United States Constitution. He must think institutionally as a partisan leader and also as a statesman, representing the interests of his party but also the national legislature. But he must always prioritize the national interest. He must love his country more than his job.
What is best for the nation?
Is there an upside to a shutdown? Of course. But do the advantages of…
BREAKING NEWS. NYT. “Government Shutdown Averted. House Passes Bill to Keep Government Open for 45 Days. Strong bipartisan support and includes more domestic disaster relief aid but no money for Ukraine. It must pass the Senate before midnight to avert a shutdown.”
Quite Unexpected.
I was going to say, before events overtook this post, at some point the Speaker must choose good policy and statesmanship over politics—and the consequences be damned. “Let the Heavens fall.” Good on him—and Godspeed.
DIANNE FEINSTEIN, 1933-2023
God rest her soul. She was a statesman who understood comity, patriotism, and the role of the upper chamber. Although I never voted for her, she was my favorite California senator for three decades. We already feel the loss of her integrity, courage, and graciousness.