Strange Tales of Modern Politics from Days Past
Is Joe Biden a Lock to Hold the Democratic Nomination through Election Day 2024?
Elected to the United States Senate from New Jersey in 1996, Robert Torricelli filled the seat vacated by the legendary Bill Bradley. Subsequent to his election, compelling evidence emerged that six donors made illegal contributions to Torricelli's campaign. After a years-long federal investigation, the United States attorney from the Southern District of New York, famed Clinton appointee Mary Jo White, on the day she resigned her office, closed the criminal investigation into Torricelli, referring the case to the Senate Ethics Committee in early 2002.
With Torricelli up for reelection in the fall, and Democrats holding a slim one-vote majority in the upper chamber, Majority Leader Tom Daschle happily proclaimed Torricelli “vindicated.” Compelled by copious evidence of improper gifts and quid pro quo so unsavory, including the conviction of David Chang in federal court for $53,700 in illegal contributions to Torricelli over the course of several years, the Ethics Committee formally admonished Torricelli for “violations of Senate rules and at least the appearance of impropriety” that summer. With contrition, Torricelli apologized to voters for his lack of judgement and honest mistakes in the pursuit of better government and promised to continue his lifelong fight to improve the lives of the people of New Jersey.
So far so good. Torricelli, a rising star within the party and crucial to retaining power in the upcoming election, had adeptly alluded federal prosecution. He mounted an effective campaign to discredit his accuser, who was, after all, now a convicted criminal. Seemingly, Torricelli had taken his lumps with a bipartisan ethics committee and now stood poised to win reelection as a powerful incumbent facing the impotent Republican Party of New Jersey.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the November winner’s circle. In a classic “Republicans pounce” scenario, boosted by a steady trickle of revelations, his opponents successfully leveraged Torricelli’s uncharged proximity to criminal activity into a campaign issue. By late September, incredibly, Torricelli trailed his GOP challenger by double digits in several polls. Not surprisingly, the upcoming 2002 midterm struck some contemporaneous observers as the most important election of their lifetime, with Democrats holding just a one-vote margin in the Senate against a dangerous Republican majority. Moving swiftly to avert a crisis for the Democracy, party elders applied pressure on Torricelli to step down for the greater good. Listing his many accomplishments for the people, and insisting his decision was completely his own and another example of his commitment to serve a cause greater than himself, just FIVE weeks out from the upcoming midterm election, Torricelli withdrew from the campaign and asked that his name be taken off the ballot.
It was an unusual request, that technically violated state election laws, nevertheless, in a matter of days, the New Jersey Supreme Court, a majority of whom appointed by Democratic governors and confirmed by Democratic lawmakers, unanimously ruled the Democratic Party could replace Torricelli on the ballot with another candidate. The choice: 78-year-old Frank Lautenberg, recently retired after winning state-wide election three times and serving eighteen years as senator.
In the closing weeks, the popular former senator surged in the polls and won the race handily, averting the temporary electoral crisis for national Democrats—at least locally. Sadly, the inspiring story of intrepid political innovation offered a sour denouement for Democrats in the larger context. The GOP, the party holding the White House in the midterm election, defied expectations that cycle and flipped three other races for a net two state gain, wresting control of the Senate—despite the best efforts of public-minded partisans.
Nice story. So what?
All God’s children have their problems, and President Joe Biden is no exception. He is 80 years old (he will be 81 in November of 2024). If reelected, and he served out his full second term, he would exit the office at age 86. A majority of Americans across party lines tell pollsters he strikes them as too old for the job. Americans also report they are dissatisfied with the economy and the direction of the country. With Republicans in control of the House and running oversight committees, thorny questions keep arising over the Biden family businesses. From what we can tell, Biden family members attract tremendous sums of cash from foreign actors distributed across myriad shell accounts and dispersed into various family coffers, and, so far, no one can explain what these foreign corporations get for their money.
Of course, politically, all this is manageable. Voters not completely satisfied with Biden are much less choosy when they are faced with Donald J. Trump as the alternative. Biden family skeletons are only news if they get reported—and the friendly outlets that suppressed unpalatable stories in 2020 give every indication they are onboard for similar support in 2024. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in 2020, and there is no reason to believe the 76-year-old former president is a man who learns from his mistakes. The concerted game plan that won the last election should work fine this time around as well.
However, sometimes the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley. Sometimes things come undone. Sometimes Republicans pounce and, miraculously, the message breaks through. Keep an eye on the polls. The one variable the Democrats cannot fix is a popular turn against President Biden. If somehow there is a needle in this haystack that breaks the camel’s back, if one detail too many somehow penetrates the threshold of public awareness and becomes part of the political zeitgeist, if the head-to-head polls veer off in a precipitous wrong direction, look for the Democrats to move quickly and unceremoniously jettison Biden for a higher percentage candidate.
No predictions. Not entirely likely. But it is not impossible. These things do happen. The cautionary tale of Robert Torricelli is not a one-off. I can imagine Vladimir Putin is not the only world leader who feels uneasy concerning his grip on power right now.
Early in the movie "Pure Country," Dusty (played by George Strait) tells his best friend and band drummer Earl that sometimes he feels like the dancing chicken they watched at the county fair as kids. Later, after Dusty is replaced by a lip-syncing road-hand, Earl remarks, "Lula just cranked up the fire on another dancin' chicken." Seems an appropriate comparison...or maybe Milli Vanilli!