Sometimes the Snow Comes Down in June
At least in terms of American Presidential Politics, this world really is a crazy place.
Breaking News. The Wall Street Journal reports Ron DeSantis will declare his candidacy for president next week.
Does he have a chance?
Although filings suggest DeSantis will enter the race with approximately $100 million in his campaign war chest, polls indicate former president Donald J. Trump holds a big lead among Republican primary voters. The RCP average has Trump at 56 percent with DeSantis trailing by more than thirty percentage points.
For the most part, conventional punditry counts Trump’s reinstallation as GOP standard bearer a done deal. Is this thing over already?
First Rule of Politics. Nobody Knows Anything. Second Rule of Politics. Never forget the First Rule.
As a hands-on observer of presidential elections since 1976, I recall a completely unknown Georgia governor who took on the Democratic establishment and miraculously won. Also, during that same bicentennial year, an often denigrated and mercilessly caricatured “B movie star” and “sinister simpleton” former governor of California challenged an incumbent president within his own party—and took the contest all the way to the nominating convention with the outcome still in doubt. “This is why we play the game.” We live in a world in which an erudite “peanut farmer” may emerge as the toast of the town, defy the odds, and ride a popular wave to the Oval Office. And, just four years later, rising from his political tomb, the much-maligned movie star, running against the now sitting president, may once again shock the world, cleanse the temple, and land an unlikely victory that will change the course of history and resonate for decades.
As in 1976 and 1980, and almost every election over the past forty years, the “smart guy talking heads” always assure us they knew exactly what is possible and likely to happen. Then, when the exact opposite transpires, they claim they knew it all the time and basically said as much, just not in so many words.
Nobody Knows Anything.
Today, an abundance of experts, based on their encyclopedic knowledge of American political history since 2015, invoke the iron law of human affairs that states once Donald Trump enters a race for a presidential nomination and begins to amass a lead, the rest of the story is a one-way ratchet, foreclosing all other possibilities in an inevitable juggernaut.
Maybe. Sometimes history repeats itself. Sometimes lightning strikes the same person twice. Not impossible. But not a foregone conclusion either. Pretty rare in actual fact. Imperfect lightning strike analogies aside, Trump? Again? It could happen—but, as a sporting person, in this contest, I “bet the field.”
Seriously, all sarcasm, irony, or subtlety aside, we live in an explosive political age in which anything can happen. For the love of God, we elected Donald Trump president of the United States in 2016. Who had that on May 18, 2015?
Moreover, in 2020, we elected a 78 year-old, broken-down, gaffe-prone, perennial also ran.
Just in case you remain unconvinced, submitted for your consideration, an incomplete list of eventual nominees in my lifetime “left for dead” at some point in their successful campaign:
Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, John Kerry, John McCain, Barack Obama, Trump, and, on numerous occasions, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.
Could Trump lead from post to finish and reclaim the presidency in November of 2024?
Yes!
Could “good old Joe from Scranton” rally one more time and shuffle and mumble his way to another 81 million votes and reelection?
Sure.
Could things get so crazy that a white knight governor or even an Alcibiades-like character* from either bracket emerge from nowhere to win the whole tournament?
Of course. Honestly, it would not represent the strangest twist in American political history.
Could Nicky Haley or Tim Scott catch fire?
Undoubtedly.
Could Meatball Ron come from thirty points back and win the whole shooting match?
Absolutely. Makes at least as much sense to me as any other scenario presented.
The flag is up.
++++++++++++
*H/t BU d/p/s a/p RJ
...and thanks for getting that song stuck in my head for the last two days!
This is not a new observation, but this latest cycle of presidents has highlighted the fact that what it takes to get elected and the skills needed to govern effectively are not the same. Would like to see whoever wins next be someone that at least their constituents could be proud of.