Yesterday the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling—and it is a REALLY BIG DEAL.
As the New York Times reported:
Facing his most significant challenge since being elected to his post, Speaker Kevin McCarthy barely cobbled together the votes to pass the bill, which was approved 217 to 215 along party lines.
Disregard the “barely” in that sentence, as it has no meaning other than sour grapes on the part of the Times. Majorities rule in the House, whether by two votes or one hundred.
For months, the White House and the Times assured us that a default on our national debt would equal economic Armageddon. They are right.
The strategic thinking held that a weak McCarthy with only a margin of four votes in his caucus could never corral unwieldy partisans and produce a plan acceptable to a GOP majority. Without a Republican bill, eventually, McCarthy would have no choice but to knuckle under to the White House and the Democratic Senate and pass a clean bill with the help of Democratic lawmakers in the lower house.
Not so fast. What McCarthy did yesterday, against all expectations, piecing together a majority, registering a fairly modest plan to raise the debt ceiling (and avoid catastrophe) will prove crucial. McCarthy and the House got there first. That is, in a battle of real gravity to avoid calamity as well as high political theater, McCarthy’s maneuver represents the equivalent of capturing the high ground.
For months the White House refused to negotiate with Republicans, supposing that they could not unify behind a tangible proposal, often taunting them to “offer a plan not speeches.” But McCarthy defied expectations, introduced a plan, and, and as the Times ruefully admitted, skillfully “cajoled and twisted arms” within his conference and prevailed in the dramatic floor vote.
So What?
Even as the Times maintains the pre-vote company line that the House bill is dead on arrival and the White House and Democratic Senate will not negotiate with “MAGA hostage takers,” McCarthy’s positioning makes that posture untenable.
Why? What happens next?
Going forward, when the White House accuses the GOP conference of trying to burn the place down and put the future of the United States economy at risk, McCarthy will calmly point to a bill that solves the problem. Now, in terms of perception and logic, instead of the House refusing to consider legislation that solves the existential threat, it is the White House and Senate who refuse to consider legislation to avoid disaster. That is, from this point on, there is an obvious solution to avoid default, pass and sign the House bill. The discussion is no longer about default. The discussion now revolves around partisan politics and favored but non-essential Democratic policies and programs. How much is Joe Biden willing to give up to avoid the cataclysm?
Not checkmate. But check. And the White House must move.
Assuming the Democratic Senate gets around to passing a bill more in line with their priorities, the House still holds the whip hand in a conference to reconcile the two bills before legislation can go to the President’s desk for signature. And, again, all the while, as the clock ticks down, as the wailing and gnashing of teeth grows louder and more intense, McCarthy can calmly say, “pass my bill and this all goes away.” A temporary and unappetizing option for Democrats, but, in the midst of a national crisis, as the bottom falls out of economic markets, an alternative that will become more palatable in contrast to a stubborn refusal to compromise.
What could happen?
Faced with such dire consequences, the White House will have at least two options.
1) Negotiate with McCarthy. Get the best deal possible. Give him a few meaningful victories that will satisfy the majority of his conference, prevail upon him to bring a compromise reconciliation bill to the floor, and then provide Democratic votes to make up for any GOP defectors.
Or
2) Come up with some extraordinary executive plan to temporarily meet the crisis without the aid of Congress. Theorists and pundits have long discussed minting a trillion dollar coin that could bankroll government payments in the short term. Unprecedented, probably unconstitutional, and undoubtedly dangerous and deleterious in the long run—but it could keep the nation out of default and temporarily stay economic convulsion.
No matter, however things go from here on out, because of what he achieved yesterday, all roads run through McCarthy.