As a sign of the times, in our current “through the looking glass” moment, the most trenchant and honest political analysis most often comes from the Babylon Bee and Freedom Toons.
Judge Tanya Chutkan of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia will soon preside over the criminal trial of former president Donald Trump on four felony charges in connection with his actions during the two months between Election Day 2020 and January 6, 2021.
Based on the indictment filed on August 1, 2023, the office of the special prosecutor alleges Trump conspired to defraud the United States, obstructed or conspired to obstruct an official proceeding of the United States, and conspired to deprive eighty-one million citizens of their right to vote.
Set to begin on March 4, 2024, one day before “Super Tuesday” on the primary calendar, this case brought under the authority of the Biden Justice Department, and presided over by a publicly Trump skeptical judge, will likely resonate with a Washington, D. C. jury. Drawn from a pool of voters infamously and vehemently averse to the former president, most observers expect a verdict unfavorable to the defendant. If convicted on even one of the four felony counts, under federal guidelines, Trump faces the very real possibility of mandatory prison time. As Andy McCarthy notes, if the trial starts on time, and the jury convicts him as expected in May, under the accepted protocol of incarceration upon conviction regardless of pending appeals, Donald Trump could spend most of 2024 in court and subsequently in lockup.
Will this constitute justice?
We make the mistake (me included) of conflating Trump’s appalling conduct before January 6th with the national embarrassment of the Capitol riot on January 6th. I have written repeatedly that J6 disqualifies Trump from another term as president. But that is not quite right. His initial failure to relinquish the presidency following an election that clearly elevated his opponent disqualifies him. His continued disparagement of said legitimate election disqualifies him.
An Aside: when I say disqualifies him, I do not mean legally. In my mind, in my opinion as an American voter and student of the United States Constitution, his egregious conduct makes him a poor choice for president.
Completely Separate and Fundamentally Different Question: was his conduct illegal? I am much less certain his actions constitute a crime. In fact, I am leaning profoundly in the direction of not a crime.
The farcical riot on January 6th connects to his malfeasance mostly before that fateful day—but only as an indirect consequence of irresponsible stewardship of his solemn constitutional obligations. Rather than the culmination to a fiendish plan to maintain power and overthrow democracy, the ugly events in the Capitol on January 6th exist as a parallel but mostly un-orchestrated protest highlighting the dangers of Trump’s narcissism, embroidery, and cognitive dissonance. Surely the chaos of the January 6th melee was not the product of a rational mind—or even the mind of Trump.
Trump did not plot out January 6th. He is an agent of chaos, and the events of January 6 were a chaotic and tragic comedy of errors, but he spent the day as clueless and powerless as the rest of us.
If it is not the denouement of his master plan, how does J6 fit in?
Culturally, the spectacle of J6 serves as a convenient shorthand for all the things we hate about Trump. No. Trump did not really plan the attack on the Capitol. But his incendiary talk over the course of November and December surely provided the fuel for an event of multiple and intricate contingencies that, once launched, seized and insinuated itself into our public imagination and memory. We comprehend beyond a shadow of a doubt that the January 6th riot at the Capitol could NOT have happened without Trump. Surely he represents the indispensable person to this mortifying imbroglio. Had he chosen the prudential path and surrendered to the laws, rules, and precedents of the American Constitutional system—not to mention the facts and evidence pertaining to the election—the melee and the violence that accompanied the foolhardy protest would never have happened.
Of course, such tortured suppositions cannot (must not) serve as the logic of the criminal case against him. Such a leap does not conform with the principles of fair and impartial and equal justice under law we have long cherished. But, I hear many saying, shortcuts will do in a pinch, especially if we are fanatically committed to averting a disastrous outcome: the re-elevation of Donald Trump as president of the United States. And, most likely, such distorted logic of justice will suffice for the jury empaneled in the matter of the United States of America versus Donald J. Trump.
What Really Happened on January 6th?
There are two insane alternative and opposing theories afoot in our national conversation. One has Trump at the center of a vast conspiracy to thwart democracy, calling the shots as his army of flag-waving racists stormed the Capitol intent on killing Mike Pence, Nancy Pelosi, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and installing the Donald as dictator for life. The other explanation blames the embarrassment of January 6th on the political opposition. Federal agents of the deep state lured good American patriots defending the Constitution into illegal conduct. In some versions, Antifa, masquerading as Trump loyalists, committed the violence and absconded leaving the hapless good guys defending fair elections holding the bag. Meanwhile, for good measure, as cover for the dirty deeds done by nefarious parties, at the behest of the Speaker and her cohort of diabolical Democrats, the Capitol Police ingeniously waved the protesters into the Capitol to serve as fall guys.
Unconvincing. The riot was NOT a deep state conspiracy or a false flag operation.
I am skeptical of the most common narratives in the ways I have always been. What really happened? A bunch of goofballs got out of hand. And some of it was, indeed, sinister. Much of it was brutal. The brutality mostly comes from a small group of anarchist trouble makers who took advantage of the chaos to wreak havoc. What are you rebelling against? Whatta you got?
The vast majority of participants in the “mostly peaceful” demonstration came to Washington to protest a stolen election. Why? Sadly, tragically, they put their faith in a charlatan who assured them “our democracy” was in peril. Most of the people on the mall on January 6th came to cheer and laugh and boo and jeer and wave flags and sing patriotic songs and Christian hymns. In large part, their treatment by the mainstream media, the courts, and partisans of all stripes has been disproportionate, distorted, disingenuous, and entirely driven by politics to make convenient points. And the mass incarceration, the wholesale and systematic prosecutions of over 1,000 American citizens, all done with partisan glee and in the darkness of a mainstream media blackout, surely rendered many instances of injustice.
Of course, anyone who struck a police officer deserves prison time. The cohort of lawless and destructive agitators and instigators merit no sympathy. For the unfortunate, unarmed soul shot dead by a Capitol Police officer for refusing to comply with a lawful command, I do have sympathy. But her conduct sealed her wretched fate. When a peace officer trains a firearm on your person and beckons you to comply, you will comply or risk the most dire consequences of defiance. Her name was Ashli Babbitt, and her death was a tragic, unnecessary, and disproportionate loss of life. She was in the wrong place at the wrong time. But she was there of her own volition. And her unfortunate decisions made in an instant of frenzy brought her into the path of a bullet fired “lawfully and within departmental policy.” Only the cruelest observer would say Ashli Babbitt got what she deserved. Surely Ashli Babbitt deserved a long and happy life with all the blessings promised by a loving and gracious God. But, in a world of human agency and free will, she made a series of foolish choices that made her vulnerable to an entire menu of horrible consequences—and, unhappily, she found herself on the very extreme end of the spectrum of worst-case possible outcomes.
May God rest her soul.
What really happened? Aside from the dead-enders, the lunatics, and the most unhinged anarchists, for the most part, a bunch of well-meaning dumbasses got out of hand and perpetuated a really foolish and misguided violent protest.
Crazy, random things happen in life. The Perfect Storm.
We have uncovered no evidence that Donald Trump or any of his minions (official or clandestine) organized and planned the almost comically unorganized and unplanned January 6th “attack.” Significantly, the violence of the Capitol riot served no role in Trump’s plan to set aside the election. In fact, ironically, the unintended consequence of the violence marked the dramatic and unambiguous end of the Trump campaign to “stop the steal.” That is, the uncoordinated January 6th Capitol Riot broke the spell of the Donald for just enough time to finalize the election without opposition. Not that it was ever going anywhere anyway, but, by the end of the evening of January 6th, everyone in Washington, including Trump, conceded the election to Joe Biden.
What Else? Why Do We Need a PART TWO? I am thinking about a few things: What is going to happen between now and Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina? Trump is now the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination. Are there any other possibilities? What is going to happen if Trump gets the nod and faces Joe Biden? What options do the Democrats have if they find themselves eight points behind in national election polls next summer? A lot actually. Will Trump go to jail? Can Trump win from jail? If, as your correspondent claims, Trump has disqualified himself from the office, are there circumstances in which a reasonable person could vote for him for president? What would Trump-47 look like, if he overcame all the obstacles? Would he really be a dictator?
Stay Tuned.